India's India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast downward on Friday, projecting total seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average (LPA) — a reduction from the 92% forecast issued in April. The LPA, calculated on data spanning 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres of rainfall over the June-to-September monsoon season. The revision carries a model error margin of plus or minus 4%.

The Times of India reported that the updated forecast assigns a 60% probability of a "deficient" monsoon, defined as rainfall falling below 90% of the LPA. This is a statistically significant shift from the earlier outlook and marks the most pessimistic IMD monsoon projection in over a decade, according to The Business Standard, which noted the forecast represents the lowest monsoon rainfall projection in 11 years.

The primary driver cited by meteorologists is the strengthening of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. United News of India reported that the rainfall forecast was revised downwards specifically as El Niño continues to intensify, a pattern historically associated with suppressed monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent. El Niño events reduce moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean, leading to drier and hotter conditions across large parts of South Asia.

Deccan Chronicle noted that IMD acknowledged the monsoon is now expected to be poorer than even its first prediction, which had already been below the historically normal benchmark. The Economic Times framed the situation bluntly, headlining the forecast as signalling "Dry Days Ahead" and warning of the economic implications for a country where agricultural output remains heavily dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns.

Not all regions face the same risk profile. NORTHEAST NOW reported that India's northeastern states may largely escape the worst of the weakened monsoon, with IMD predicting near-normal rainfall for that subregion. This geographic divergence is consistent with historical El Niño patterns, which tend to suppress rainfall more severely over central and northwestern India than in the far northeast.

The Hindustan Times highlighted that certain states could also experience below-normal rainfall specifically in June — the critical onset month of the monsoon — adding that an early shortfall could set the tone for the rest of the season. Free Press Journal reported that Maharashtra in particular faces a dual threat, with IMD predicting both below-average monsoon rainfall and rising numbers of heatwave days for the state.

The Tribune observed that clouds have already brought some cooling to northern India in recent days, even as the broader IMD forecast for below-normal rains introduces uncertainty for the region's farmers and water managers. Greater Kashmir similarly noted IMD's national-level prediction of below-normal monsoon rainfall, placing the forecast within the context of recurring concerns about water scarcity in northern and northwestern zones.

Agricultural economists and policy analysts have flagged the forecast as a potential pressure point for food prices and rural incomes. India's kharif crop cycle — covering staples such as rice, pulses, and oilseeds — is sown during the monsoon months and accounts for a substantial share of annual agricultural output. A deficient monsoon raises the risk of reduced yields, livestock stress, and groundwater depletion, particularly in rain-fed farming districts.

ThePrint and The Hans India both noted that while IMD projects 90% of LPA as the central estimate, the probabilistic range leaves room for outcomes that could either approach normal or dip significantly below it, depending on how El Niño conditions evolve over the coming weeks. IMD is expected to issue updated forecasts as the season progresses, with regional breakdowns providing more granular guidance for state governments and agricultural planners.

What remains unconfirmed is the precise intensity and duration of the El Niño episode, factors that will ultimately determine whether the season trends toward the lower or upper bound of IMD's projected range. Meteorologists caution that monsoon dynamics are complex, and late-season corrections — where rainfall recovers after a slow start — are not uncommon, though they cannot be relied upon for planning purposes at this stage.